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Throughout the season, I’m going to be releasing my against-the-spread picks here — the same ones that I’ll be submitting in the official Fantasy Outsiders league. [Note: All lines are taken from Westgate Superbook. No lines were available for the Bears/Vikings or Dolphins/Titans matchups].

Last Week: 8-7  |  Overall: 30-27-1

Home Team in CAPS

GIANTS -3.5 Chargers

It took fifteen quarters, but the Giant offense actually looked dangerous in their fourth quarter comeback in Tampa Bay last weekend. New York will be looking to end a trend of 5-straight ATS losses against visiting West Coast teams, while the Chargers are riding a 3-0 ATS stretch against the GMen. Also, Ereck Flowers. Pick: Chargers (+3.5)

BENGALS -3 Bills

Coming into the season, most probably would have predicted the Bengals would be the team entering this matchup at 3-1 – not the Bills. Andy Dalton has been exceptional for two straight weeks with a passer rating of 120+ in both games. Turnover margin is always going to play a significant part in deciding a game, but it will hold even more significance than usual this week considering Buffalo is 2nd in the league with a +6 margin, while Cincy is tied for 2nd worst at -5. Pick: Bills (+3)

BROWNS PK Jets

The Browns opened as 1.5-point favorites but early money on the Jets has turned this matchup into a pick-em. I’d normally go for the value bet, but the Jets are clearly the better team here. Pick: Jets (PK)

STEELERS -8 Jaguars

I am secretly praying that the Ben Roethlisberger/Antonio Brown feud continues this week, beginning with Ben going ultra-petty and refusing to throw Brown’s way, and ending when Brown tries to jump a snap while Ben is in shotgun leading to Ben tackling him in the backfield. Considering how unlikely that scenario is, I’ll go with Pittsburgh. Pick: Steelers (-8)

COLTS -1.5 49ers

Not even going to give this the time of day. Give me the one whose owner appeared in a Parks & Rec. episode. That’s how much I care about this game. Pick: Colts (-1.5)

EAGLES -6.5 Cardinals

Only one of these teams played in the most boring overtime NFL game I’ve ever watched last weekend. Pick: Eagles (-6.5)

LIONS -2.5 Panthers

I’m low-key looking forward to seeing how Detroit welcomes Cam after the QB’s big week in the media. This line, on the other hand, is a joke. I don’t understand how anyone could watch these two teams over the first four weeks and think the Panthers would be considered half-point favorites on a neutral field? Vegas clearly thinks that the public is going to overvalue Carolina after their win over the Pats last week, so I’m happy to end of up on the value side on this one. Pick: Lions (-2.5)

RAMS PK Seahawks

This one is easier than it looks. Do we really think the Rams are this good? Do we really think the Seahawks are this bad? I love this year’s Rams story, but this line is loaded. Pick: Seahawks (PK)

RAIDERS -2.5 Ravens

Welcome to the second most boring matchup of Week 5. I can’t believe Raiders’ fans have to stomach going from preseason AFC favorites to E.J. Manuel. If Derek Carr is to have any chance of rescuing this season when he returns, Oakland needs to find a way to beat an inferior opponent this week and stay afloat. I’ll fox with ‘em. Pick: Raiders (-2.5)

COWBOYS -2 Packers

Another line that doesn’t make much sense. The fact that the Cowboys and Packers are both huge public players should cancel each other out in this case. Has anyone seen Dallas the past three weeks? A blowout loss to Denver where the proclaimed “best O-line in the NFL” got smoked. A thoroughly unimpressive win in Arizona. And a home loss to the (in my opinion) overvalued Rams. You mean to tell me that Green Bay would be favored by just one point on a neutral field? Please. Pick: Packers (+2)

TEXANS PK Chiefs

Not a single home dog this week? I’m selling the Texans and Deshuan Watson this Sunday night. Despite it being a short week for Kansas City, I think there’s enough film available of the rookie QB now where the Chiefs will have a plan in place to counter some of these college run-pass option sets. Also, I’m still all-in with my Kareem Hunt for MVP stock. Pick: Chiefs (PK)

 

Dave is the Creator and Editor-in-Chief for The Benchmob. He primarily writes about Soccer, the NBA, esports, and Pop-Culture.