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Throughout the season, I’m going to be releasing my against-the-spread picks here — the same ones that I’ll be submitting in the official Fantasy Outsiders league. [Note: All lines are taken from Westgate Superbook].

Last Week: 8-6  |  Overall: 22-20-1

Home Team in CAPS

Saints -3 DOLPHINS

Last weekend, home dogs were basically 643-2. Then again, they didn’t have to play in London. Pick: Saints (-3)

PATRIOTS -9 Panthers

The Panthers – at home – scored 13 points against the Saints last weekend. The Saints. They now have to travel to Foxborough a week later. Pick: Patriots (-9)

COWBOYS -6.5 Rams

The Rams are 0-3 straight up and ATS in their last three games against the Cowboys. They’ve also failed to cover the spread in 7-straight games against NFC opponents. And despite opening the season 2-1 and being one of the best early-season stories, let’s not pretend that they didn’t lead off with games against the Colts and 49ers. Sure, the Cowboys have some issues to work around on offense – most notably, creating space for the receivers – but there’s no reason Dallas shouldn’t come out on top in this one by two touchdowns at least. Pick: Cowboys (-6.5)

VIKINGS -2 Lions

I think the Lions’ strong start (they should probably be 3-0) is a bit of a misnomer – sure, they only lost by 4 to Atlanta, but you could make the case that Detroit should never have been in the game in the first place considering they were +3 in the turnover column. Good teams who have a +3 turnover margin don’t lose home games. They just don’t. Pick: Vikings (-2)

Titans -2 TEXANS

After a shaky Week 1, it’s looking like we’ve finally found the Titans team that we expected coming into the season. To be fair, Houston also looked much better with Deshuan Watson under center last week, and I sure do like those home dogs. Pick: Texans (+2)

Jaguars -3.5 JETS

Here we have ourselves another fade-the-recency-bias opportunity. After the Jaguars’ 44-7 stomping of formerly undefeated Baltimore in London last week, almost 90 percent of the public is picking Jacksonville to win this game. That’s despite this matchup being the Jaguars’ second straight road game, and despite the Jets also outperforming expectations in Week 3. The bottom line is that the Jaguars are only around three-point favorites as of post time, yet the public is picking them at the same rate as they typically pick a six- or seven-point favorite. And despite how much I want to take the Jags based solely off of the awesomeness of their owner’s mustache, the Jets still have the value as a home dog. Pick: Jets (+3.5)

Bengals -3 BROWNS 

The Bengals looked good in Green Bay last weekend, and I don’t think it was a fluke. This is the matchup that they finally turn things around courtesy of a big week out of Joe Mixon. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Browns are 1-14 in games played after a week in which they… kidding. I’m just going to go ahead and pick against Cleveland and save us all the time. Pick: Bengals (-3)

Steelers -3 RAVENS

These clubs have met 16 times since 2010—including two playoff showdowns—and nearly all of them have been tightly contested. In fact, only four of the games played in that span ended up being decided by more than a touchdown. In a close game, I’ll take the home dog. Pick: Ravens (+3)

FALCONS -8 Bills

Both teams have looked markedly different at home as compared to on the road this season. I say this Falcons team will look closer to their Week 2 form (vs. Green Bay) than they did in their matchups at Chicago and Detroit. Pick: Falcons (-8)

BUCCANEERS -3 Giants

If the Giants were the television series Seinfeld, Erick Flowers would be the finale. Pick: Buccaneers (-3)

CHARGERS -1.5 Eagles

As of Wednesday morning, the Chargers were holding steady as a one-point favorite while being picked by less than 35 percent of the public. With the line moving another half-point on Friday despite the public betting trend standing still, that tells me all I need to know about where sharp money is landing. Pick: Chargers (-1.5)  

CARDINALS -7 49ers

The 49ers have hung around until the last possession in each of the last two weeks, and I think we’ll see much of the same in Arizona on Sunday. I don’t know if you’ve been watching the Cardinals, but Carson Palmer is NOT good. It took one of the best performances of Larry Fitzgerald’s career against the Cowboys in Week 3 just to keep the Cardinals close, and they still only managed 14 total points. If San Fran doesn’t win outright, they still manage to cover here. Pick: 49ers (+7)

BRONCOS -2.5 Raiders

Recency bias is most certainly a thing, and the public appears to have quickly soured on the Broncos after their upset loss at Buffalo. Funny enough, the Raiders actually underperformed Vegas expectations by a wider margin last week in their loss at Washington, but the Broncos currently have the lowest public pick percentage of all Week 4 favorites of 3 points or fewer; I’ll fade the public until the cows come home. Pick: Broncos (-2.5)

SEAHAWKS -13 Colts

If the Seahawks can’t get things moving at home against this Colts team, then I’m out on Seattle in 2017. Last chance, Russell! Pick: Seahawks (-13)

CHIEFS -7 Redskins

Kareem Hunt. MVP. I’ll ride it ‘til the end. Pick: Chiefs (-7)

 

Dave is the Creator and Editor-in-Chief for The Benchmob. He primarily writes about Soccer, the NBA, esports, and Pop-Culture.